I’ve been getting this question a lot lately: “Are we seeing more distressed sellers in 2025 compared to 2023 and 2024?”
The short answer? It depends entirely on where you’re looking.
I came across a tweet from Derek Thompson that perfectly captures what’s happening right now, and I think it’s worth sharing because it directly addresses the confusion I’m hearing from investors.
Here’s what’s critical to understand: real estate isn’t just a local business; it’s a hyper-local business. It’s nearly impossible to compare the real estate market in one state with another, one region with another, and certainly one city with another within the same state.
What we’re witnessing right now is a massive dichotomy between what’s happening in single-family housing and multifamily housing across different regions of the country.
In Florida, Texas, and much of the broader Southeast and Southwest markets, we’re seeing significant distress. Rents are dropping, housing prices are falling, and multifamily values are plummeting in many of these areas.
Meanwhile, in the Midwest, West Coast, and Northeast US (where we operate), rents, housing prices, and multifamily values have remained really strong and haven’t dipped significantly.
But here’s the thing: we are not seeing anything close to that dynamic in the Northeast where we operate.
This is why I keep emphasizing that it’s critical to understand where you’re looking at deals and where you’re investing when trying to evaluate distress levels. The national headlines about real estate distress might be completely irrelevant to your specific market.
So when someone asks me if we’re seeing more distressed sellers in 2025, my answer is: “Which America are you talking about?”
If you’re investing in Florida or Texas right now, you’re probably seeing significant opportunities from distressed sellers who bought at peak prices and are now facing reality.
If you’re investing in New Hampshire, like we are, the market dynamics are completely different. We’re not seeing that same level of distress.
Best,
Axel